Wagering requirements: how to calculate a bonus's real value

The wagering requirement is the number that decides whether a casino bonus is really worth money or just a marketing promise. "35×" sounds simple, but on a 500 € bonus one word in the terms is the difference between 17 500 € and 35 000 € of turnover. Twice the obligation, under the same headline.

In this article we work the real value of a bonus all the way out: how to calculate a wagering requirement under both common readings, how turnover and the house edge together decide a bonus's expected result, and which casino bonus terms — game weighting, max bet, time limit, max cashout, sticky — actually change the answer. At the end there is a four-step method you can run on any offer yourself, and an honest conclusion: sometimes the correct answer is to decline the bonus.

• 35× bonus and 35× (bonus + deposit) are the same number but a different obligation: a 500 € bonus needs 17 500 € of turnover in the first case and 35 000 € in the second (with a 500 € deposit).
• A bonus's expected cost = required turnover × house edge. A 96% RTP means a 4% house edge: 17 500 € × 0.04 = 700 € of expected loss against a 500 € bonus.
• So a typical 35× bonus is already expected-negative before variance is even mentioned. "Free money" is not free.
• Only two things genuinely move the number: a lower multiplier and a higher RTP. Rule of thumb: multiplier × house edge should stay below 1.
• Game weighting decides whether a bet counts at all: slots 100%, table games and live casino often 10% or 0%.
• Max bet, time limits and cashout caps don't change the cost — they void or clip the upside.
• Playing with cash carries no turnover obligation, no bet cap and no cashout ceiling. Sometimes that is simply the better deal.

The most expensive mistake is not bad multiplication. It is assuming you know what the casino multiplies. Casino bonus terms use two common readings, and the gap between them is a factor of two.

1. "35× bonus" (bonus only)

Required turnover = bonus × multiplier.

500 € × 35 = 17 500 €

2. "35× (bonus + deposit)" (D+B)

Required turnover = (deposit + bonus) × multiplier. A 500 € deposit with a 100% bonus, i.e. 500 € of bonus money:

(500 € + 500 €) × 35 = 1 000 € × 35 = 35 000 €

The same "35×" therefore means either 17 500 € or 35 000 € in bets. If an offer states only the multiplier and not the base, you don't have the information yet — it lives in the terms and conditions and has to be looked up. The terms wagering requirement and turnover requirement mean essentially the same thing, but the base behind them can differ.

A third variant exists too, less often: the multiplier applies to the deposit only. The logic is identical — find the base, then multiply.

Turnover alone is not a cost. The cost appears because every euro wagered leaves, on average, a small slice with the casino. That slice is the house edge, and it is simply 100% minus the game's RTP.

96% RTP → a 4% house edge, i.e. 0.04.

Case A: 35× bonus

• Required turnover: 500 € × 35 = 17 500 €
• Expected loss: 17 500 € × 0.04 = 700 €
• Expected result: 500 € − 700 € = −200 €

Case B: 35× (bonus + deposit)

• Required turnover: 1 000 € × 35 = 35 000 €
• Expected loss: 35 000 € × 0.04 = 1 400 €
• Expected result: 500 € − 1 400 € = −900 €

The real value of the bonus is therefore negative in both cases — and that is before variance has entered the picture at all. One hundred percent "free" money costs more, on average, than it delivers.

The assumptions baked into this calculation

An honest calculation needs honest assumptions. The maths above assumes that:

• you play a single game at 96% RTP (many slots sit at 94–97%, some lower);
• game weighting is 100%, so every euro staked counts in full;
• you play the required turnover through exactly once and stake no more;
• we are looking only at the average — a single session can end well up, or at zero.

Every assumption that turns out worse in reality (lower RTP, weighting below 100%, overshooting the turnover) only makes the result more negative. The optimistic estimate is already in the red.

If expected cost is turnover × house edge, then it is also clear what can be changed. Only two things: how much you have to stake, and how much each stake costs.

The break-even point is a simple formula

With a bonus-only multiplier N and a house edge e, the expected cost is N × bonus × e. That equals the bonus exactly when N × e = 1. So:

Break-even multiplier = 1 ÷ house edge.

At a 4% edge that is 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25. So 25× bonus is roughly a zero-sum deal at 96% RTP, and anything above it is expected-negative.

The effect of the multiplier (500 € bonus, 96% RTP)

• 20×: 10 000 € × 0.04 = 400 € cost → +100 €
• 25×: 12 500 € × 0.04 = 500 € cost → 0 €
• 35×: 17 500 € × 0.04 = 700 € cost → −200 €
• 45×: 22 500 € × 0.04 = 900 € cost → −400 €

The effect of RTP (500 € bonus, 35× bonus)

• 96% RTP (4%): 17 500 € × 0.04 = 700 € → −200 €
• 97% RTP (3%): 17 500 € × 0.03 = 525 € → −25 €
• 98% RTP (2%): 17 500 € × 0.02 = 350 € → +150 €

One percentage point of RTP weighs as much here as several units of the multiplier. And when the base is (bonus + deposit) and the deposit equals the bonus, the break-even point halves: 1 ÷ (2 × 0.04) = 12.5×. In that light, 35× (bonus + deposit) is not a borderline offer — it is nearly three times past break-even.

It is also worth knowing that volatility does not change the expected result, only its distribution: on a high-volatility game most bonus attempts end with the balance hitting zero before the turnover is met, offset by a rare large win. The average stays the same.

The logical conclusion from the previous chapter would be: clear the wagering at a blackjack table, where the house edge is under 1%. Casinos thought of that before you did — and the answer is game weighting.

Weighting states how much of a bet counts toward the turnover.

The exact percentages are each casino's own decision and they get changed — always check the terms of the specific offer.

Effective house edge

There is one clean trick for working out what weighting does:

Effective house edge = the game's house edge ÷ its weighting.

Because to generate 1 € of counted turnover on a game weighted at 10%, you must actually stake 10 €. And the loss is charged on what you actually staked.

• Slot: 4% ÷ 1.0 = 4% effective edge.
• Blackjack at a 0.5% edge, weighted 10%: 0.5% ÷ 0.1 = 5% effective edge.

Check it directly: to generate 17 500 € of counted turnover at a table weighted 10%, you must stake 17 500 € ÷ 0.1 = 175 000 €. Expected loss: 175 000 € × 0.005 = 875 € — more than the slot's 700 €.

That is precisely why table games are weighted down: a low house edge turns, through the weighting, into a higher effective edge. The only real benefit of a low edge appears when the game is weighted at 100%.

The multiplier and RTP set the expected cost. The remaining casino bonus terms don't change that cost — they limit what you can win and withdraw at all. They tend to be read last, even though they are exactly what turns a mathematically borderline offer into a bad one.

Time limit

Typically 7–30 days. Put it together with the turnover and you get a schedule: 17 500 € at one-euro stakes is 17 500 spins. At a moderate pace (around 600 spins an hour) that is roughly 29 hours — squeezed into seven days, more than four hours a day. A bonus with a weekly limit is not a small extra; it is a timetable.

Maximum cashout

Some bonuses cap how much of the bonus-derived win can be withdrawn at all — for example a multiple of the bonus amount. The cap cuts away exactly the part of the distribution that makes the whole deal worth anything: the rare big win. If the rest of the calculation is close to zero, a cap makes it reliably negative.

Sticky vs non-sticky

A sticky bonus means the bonus money itself is never withdrawable — when the wagering is done you keep only the winnings it produced, and the bonus part is removed. With a non-sticky ("cashable") bonus, the bonus itself becomes real money once the turnover is met. Between two offers that is as big a difference as doubling the multiplier, and it is never in the headline.

Smaller, but they matter

• Excluded games: some slots don't count at all — and those are often the highest-RTP ones.
• The minimum deposit needed to activate the bonus.
• Whether withdrawing before the turnover is met voids the bonus — on Pay N Play accounts, where a withdrawal is fast anyway, the temptation is real.
• Whether winnings from free spins carry their own separate multiplier. They often do.

The same calculation works on any offer — on Trustly bonuses exactly as anywhere else. It takes a couple of minutes.

1. Find the base and compute the turnover. Does the multiplier apply to the bonus, or to (bonus + deposit)? Multiply it out. That product is the only number that really counts — not the multiplier itself.
2. Compute the expected cost. Take the RTP of the game you will actually play, turn it into a house edge (100% − RTP), divide by the game weighting and multiply by the turnover. Turnover × (house edge ÷ weighting).
3. Subtract, then clip. Bonus minus expected cost gives the headline result. Then check whether a maximum cashout cuts the possible upside away, and whether the time limit is achievable at your normal pace.
4. Check the deal-breakers. Max bet, sticky or not, excluded games, whether a withdrawal voids the bonus. Any one of them alone can zero out the rest of the calculation.

Rule of thumb

If you want a single sentence to remember: multiplier × house edge below 1, weighting 100%, cash not locked up.

• A decent offer: a multiplier up to about 30× the bonus (or ~15× on a bonus + deposit base), 100% weighting on the games you actually play, a max bet of at least 5 €, 30 days of time, no cashout cap or a generous one, non-sticky.
• A bad offer: 35× or more on a (bonus + deposit) base, a sticky bonus, a cashout cap that is a small multiple of the bonus, seven days of time, a low max bet.

Allowing up to ~30× is not a mathematical concession but an honest admission: a small expected loss is the price of entertainment when the rest of the terms are clean. A sticky 35× (bonus + deposit) bonus with a seven-day limit, however, is not entertainment — it is roughly 900 € of expected cost in pursuit of 500 €.

When bonuses get compared, it is easy to forget that declining the bonus is also a choice — and often the better one. Cash carries no turnover obligation, no max-bet clause, no time limit and no cashout ceiling. You can play any game at any stake and stop at any moment.

That matters most at Pay N Play casinos, where the entire point is that money moves quickly in both directions. A 500 € bonus that ties a 500 € deposit behind 35 000 € of turnover cancels exactly the advantage you chose a Trustly casino for — as the comparison of Pay N Play and a regular account also explains.

If a welcome bonus still interests you, read its mechanics first: the article on the Trustly deposit and the welcome bonus covers how a bonus reaches a bank-payment account in the first place. And if the answer comes back as "this bonus isn't worth it" — that is a correct answer too, not a failed calculation.

Every calculation in this article says the same thing: gambling is expected-negative over the long run, and a bonus does not flip that. Calculating a wagering requirement is a tool for avoiding bad terms and knowing what you are paying for — not a method for making money.

In Estonia gambling is allowed from the age of 21, and winnings from operators licensed by the Estonian Tax and Customs Board (EMTA) are free of income tax. Set deposit, loss and time limits before you play, not during: a limit is the only number that does not depend on variance. The practical steps are in the article on responsible gambling and limits.

If playing has stopped being entertainment, or you are trying to win a loss back, take a break or use self-exclusion. In Estonia, support is available from the Gambling Addiction Counselling Centre (Hasartmängusõltuvuse Nõustamiskeskus). Only play with money you can lose without it changing your life.